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This has been a bad week for Ontario, but a good one for Doug Ford. Donald Trump’s threat of a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian exports would be a crippling blow to the provincial economy. It’s also an opportunity for the Ontario premier to show leadership and he’s making the most of it.
Ford’s quick response to the tariff threat struck the right balance between emotion and action. The premier compared the president-elect’s social media announcement to “a family member stabbing you right in the heart” and called the move “very, very hurtful to Canadians and Americans on both sides.”
Ford went on to stress the $500 billion a year in trade between Ontario and the U.S., saying his government would launch a “stronger together” marketing campaign to make that point. The premier also offered the opinion that Canada would have to retaliate if Trump follows through on his threat to apply high tariffs if something isn’t done about border security and drugs crossing into the U.S.
That was just about everything that could and should have been said. Compare Ford’s approach to that of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau’s response was lacking either emotion or action. Trudeau said, “This is a relationship that we know takes a certain amount of working on, and that’s what we’ll do.” He added “One of the really important things is that we be all pulling together on this. The Team Canada approach is what works.”
After a virtual meeting with the premiers Wednesday, called at Ford’s insistence, Trudeau’s key ministers offered a non-specific plan to improve border security, while maintaining at the same time that there is no problem with border security.
Despite Trudeau’s plea for a Team Canada approach, Ford quickly made it clear that he’d like a better coach. In a statement after the meeting, Ford said, “the federal government has been slow to react and is stuck on its back foot.”
Earlier Wednesday, Ford had already convened a meeting with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency, the Canadian Border Services Agency and the Ontario Provincial Police. He said he will continue to work on getting the OPP more involved with border smuggling issues, but he needs the federal government to share information.
Even before the president-elect’s tariff threat, Ford had been busy pushing a strategy for a bilateral trade deal between Canada and the U.S. that would cut out Mexico. The value of that was emphasized when Trump lumped Canada and Mexico together, a comparison Ford called “insulting.”
The “three amigos” trade approach has always seemed like one amigo too many. What does Mexico bring to the table, other than cheap labour that benefits some corporations? Canada did about $55 billion in two-way trade with Mexico in 2023. By comparison, Canada’s trade with the U.S. totals nearly a trillion dollars, almost half of that coming from Ontario.
The keep-calm-and-carry-on crowd is relying on the facts about how damaging a 25-per-cent tariff would be to both Canada and the U.S. That’s self-evident, but this dispute is about politics, not free trade. That’s true for Ford, Trump and Trudeau.
Trump made a lot of noise in his campaign about illegals and drugs flooding across the U.S. border. From his perspective, something has to be seen to be done. The threat of tariffs is a useful lever to encourage Canada and Mexico to act. Some say Trump doesn’t understand what tariffs are. Sure he does: A tariff is a big stick he can wave to get what he wants.
For Ford, the tariff fight is perfect. Earlier this month, Progressive Conservative sources floated the idea that Ford’s expected spring election will be about the need for stable, competent government capable of combatting Trump’s excesses. Standing up for Ontario is easier than defending the poor state of Ontario health care or his government’s lax spending. Even better, Ford’s political opponents are entirely implausible as the antidote to Trump.
For Trudeau, the tariff issue is a last, forlorn hope that people might unite behind him in a time of perceived crisis. If he thinks there’s any chance of that at all, he should call a snap election to test the theory.
What’s he got to lose? Trudeau can’t make a move right now without NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s blessing and business in the Commons has ground to a halt over the government’s refusal to release documents detailing a green-energy slush fund scandal. He’s a prime minister in name only. That’s not what Canada needs to weather the Trump regime.
The idea of Trudeau winning such an election is a long shot, but at least it’s a shot. Why wait and face sure defeat next fall?
National Post
English